The Timeline for Robo-Humans in Medical Roles

Table of Contents

• 1. Current Progress in Medical AI and Robotics
• 2. Key Areas for Robo-Human Integration
• 3. Challenges to Overcome
• 4. Veterinary Medicine
• Conclusion

1. Current Progress in Medical AI and Robotics

AI Diagnosis and Treatment Planning: AI models like IBM Watson and Google's DeepMind are already assisting in diagnosing diseases (e.g., cancer, retinal diseases) with high accuracy.

Robotic Surgery: Systems like the Da Vinci robot assist surgeons in performing complex surgeries with precision.

Telemedicine and Chatbots: AI-driven virtual assistants like Babylon Health provide basic consultations and triage.

2. Key Areas for Robo-Human Integration

Junior Doctor Roles (95% Replacement)

Tasks such as patient data entry, preliminary diagnoses, and routine procedures can be automated relatively quickly.

Expected timeline: 5-10 years, given the current rate of AI adoption in healthcare.

Senior Doctor Roles (70% Replacement)

Tasks such as complex diagnoses, surgical decision-making, and nuanced patient care require more sophisticated AI and human-like decision-making capabilities.

Expected timeline: 15-20 years, due to the complexity of senior roles and ethical/regulatory challenges.

3. Challenges to Overcome

• Ethical and Legal Approvals: Medical robotics must comply with strict regulations and gain trust from healthcare providers and patients.
• Data Quality and Bias: AI must be trained on diverse and accurate medical data to ensure reliability.
• Emotional Intelligence: Addressing patients' psychological needs and building trust are areas where human doctors excel and robots lag.

4. Veterinary Medicine

Veterinary needs are less documented than human medicine, but similar AI applications could emerge. Achieving full competence for animal care may take an additional 5-10 years beyond human applications due to limited data and variability across species.

Conclusion

For junior doctor roles, Robo-humans could replace 95% within 5-10 years.

For senior doctor roles, 70% replacement may take 15-20 years.

Full capability in animal care might follow within 25-30 years.

Continuous advancements in AI, coupled with societal acceptance, will determine the pace of this transformation.